Music professionals in the Recording Academy were welcomed to Grammy season this year with an impassioned plea from Chief Executive Harvey Mason Jr., who sent a letter to the group’s 13,000 or so voting members in July that urged them to “vote intentionally, deliberately, with pride and with purpose.” We’ll see what effect his entreaty had when nominations for the 67th Grammy Awards are announced on Nov. 8. (The annual ceremony itself will take place Feb. 2 at Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles.) To be eligible for consideration, a recording must have been released between Sept. 16, 2023, and Aug. 30, 2024. Here are our predictions for nominations in some of the more closely watched categories, with potential honorees listed in alphabetical order.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Beyoncé, “Cowboy Carter”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Short n’ Sweet”
Billie Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft”
Ariana Grande, “Eternal Sunshine”
Post Malone, “F-1 Trillion”
Chappell Roan, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
Taylor Swift, “The Tortured Poets Department”
Usher, “Coming Home”
Possible surprise: Charli XCX, “Brat”
The Grammys’ equivalent of the best picture category is almost certain to reflect this year’s bumper crop of albums by pop’s top female stars, including Beyoncé (who’s won more Grammys than anyone in history) and Taylor Swift (who’s taken album of the year an unrivaled four times). Be on the lookout for an appearance by Usher, who dropped his ninth solo LP just days before he headlined February’s Super Bowl halftime show — a tactic that paid off in an album of the year nod when Usher’s old pal Mary J. Blige deployed it in 2022.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ’Em”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Hozier, “Too Sweet”
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”
Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone, “Fortnight”
Possible surprise: Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”
Based on cultural impact, Kendrick Lamar’s Drake-dissing “Not Like Us” has to be considered a shoo-in for record of the year — but with the Grammys, of course, anything involving hip-hop comes with a big question mark. Expect Beyoncé to extend her lead as the artist with the most record nominations (this would be her ninth) and Bruno Mars to pull even with Frank Sinatra’s seven in the category. A nod for the smash “I Had Some Help” would serve as Morgan Wallen’s first Grammy nomination (after the writers of his hit “Last Night” scored one last year).
SONG OF THE YEAR
“Birds of a Feather,” written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish)
“Deeper Well,” written by Ian Fitchuk, Kacey Musgraves and Daniel Tashian (performed by Kacey Musgraves)
“Die With a Smile,” written by Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II, James Fauntleroy, Lady Gaga, Bruno Mars and Andrew Watt (performed by Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars)
“Fortnight,” written by Jack Antonoff, Post Malone and Taylor Swift (performed by Taylor Swift)
“Good Luck, Babe!,” written by Daniel Nigro, Chappell Roan and Justin Tranter (performed by Chappell Roan)
“Texas Hold ’Em,” written by Brian Bates, Beyoncé, Elizabeth Lowell Boland, Megan Bülow, Nate Ferraro and Raphael Saadiq (performed by Beyoncé)
“Turn the Lights Back On,” written by Arthur Bacon, Wayne Hector, Billy Joel and Freddy Wexler (performed by Billy Joel)
“We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love),” written by Ariana Grande, Max Martin and Ilya Salmanzadeh (performed by Ariana Grande)
Possible surprise: “Beautiful Things,” written by Benson Boone, Evan Blair and Jack LaFrantz (performed by Benson Boone)
At the most recent Grammys ceremony, five of the eight singles nominated for record of the year also competed for song of the year. (The record prize goes to performers and producers, while song goes to songwriters.) So look for plenty of overlap here, along with potential showings by Kacey Musgraves’ stately “Deeper Well” and Billy Joel’s much-hyped comeback song, which could appeal to the same voters who put Bonnie Raitt’s “Just Like That” in this category in 2023. If Swift is nominated, it’ll be her eighth nod for an award she’s never won.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
Megan Moroney
Tommy Richman
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey
Brittney Spencer
Teddy Swims
Possible surprise: The Hanseroth Twins
Might voters nominate three country acts (in Megan Moroney, Shaboozey and Brittney Spencer) for best new artist for the first time? That result would be in keeping with the tear Nashville has been on for the last two years or so. Yet anyone other than Sabrina Carpenter or Chappell Roan would seem to have little chance of actually winning the prize come February — unless the two new superstars wind up splitting the vote.
BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
Sabrina Carpenter, “Short n’ Sweet”
Billie Eilish, “Hit Me Hard and Soft”
Ariana Grande, “Eternal Sunshine”
Chappell Roan, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess”
Taylor Swift, “The Tortured Poets Department”
Possible surprise: Dua Lipa, “Radical Optimism”
To any man who made a pop album in 2024: Good luck, babe.
BEST RAP ALBUM
21 Savage, “American Dream”
Common & Pete Rock, “The Auditorium Vol. 1”
Eminem, “The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce)”
Future and Metro Boomin, “We Don’t Trust You”
Nicki Minaj, “Pink Friday 2”
Possible surprise: Doja Cat, “Scarlet”
A nod for Eminem would be his eighth for this prize, which he’s lost only once, when Kanye West’s “Late Registration” beat out “Encore” in 2006.
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
Beyoncé, “Cowboy Carter”
Post Malone, “F-1 Trillion”
Willie Nelson, “The Border”
Lainey Wilson, “Whirlwind”
Chris Stapleton, “Higher”
Possible surprise: Sturgill Simpson, “Passage du Desir”
The all-important question is whether “Cowboy Carter” will be nominated after the Nashville insiders of the Country Music Assn. blanked Beyoncé for next month’s CMA Awards.
BEST ROCK ALBUM
Pearl Jam, “Dark Matter”
The Black Keys, “Ohio Players”
Green Day, “Saviors”
The Rolling Stones, “Hackney Diamonds”
Dolly Parton, “Rockstar”
Possible surprise: Bleachers, “Bleachers”
Two years ago, she was inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. Now, 78-year-old Dolly Parton is on the hunt for her first Grammy nomination in a rock category. Keep an eye out for Bleachers, the band led by longtime Grammy fave Jack Antonoff, who’s been named producer of the year three ceremonies in a row.
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds, “Wild God”
Brittany Howard, “What Now”
Mk.gee, “Two Star & the Dream Police”
St. Vincent, “All Born Screaming”
Vampire Weekend, “Only God Was Above Us”
Possible surprise: Clairo, “Charm”
St. Vincent and Vampire Weekend are both looking for their fourth nominations for an award each has won twice. But those veterans may face a threat from Mk.gee, a 28-year-old guitar whiz who’s been heartily endorsed by Eric Clapton, John Mayer — and Justin Bieber, with whom he’s been working lately in the studio.
